Social Security and Medicare facing looming benefit cuts

Social Security and Medicare are facing mounting financial challenges, with both programs projected to fall short of paying full benefits within the next decade unless Congress intervenes. According to the 2025 Trustees Report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will only be able to pay full scheduled benefits until 2033. At that point, recipients would receive just 77 percent of their benefits. Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is also projected to be depleted in 2033, three years earlier than last year’s estimate, after which 89 percent of benefits could be paid.

If the OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) funds were combined, the Social Security program would be depleted in 2034, paying only 81 percent of scheduled benefits. The DI fund on its own is projected to remain solvent through 2099. The report cites several causes for the worsening outlook: the repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset under the Social Security Fairness Act, slower recovery in fertility rates, and a smaller share of GDP going to labor compensation.

As of 2024, the OASI Trust Fund held $2.54 trillion, a $103 billion drop from the previous year. Meanwhile, the Social Security Administration is cutting about 12 percent of its workforce, leading to delays in service. “Today’s report is a reminder that even as DOGE’s cuts to the Social Security Administration are wrecking Social Security’s customer service, they are doing nothing to improve its solvency,” Nancy Altman of Social Security Works told NPR.

House Speaker Mike Johnson recently indicated Republicans have a plan to rein in spending on entitlement programs.

“There are two categories of spending in the federal government. Mandatory spending is on the programs Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid … it’s 73, 74% of spending, which is on autopilot, which is frightening,” Johnson said. “I am committing that we will do that.” A recent survey found most Americans oppose cuts. About half said Medicaid and food assistance are underfunded, and six in 10 said too little is spent on Social Security, Medicare, and education. “At this point, any member of Congress without a plan to fix Social Security is shirking their duty to preserve the nation’s largest and most important government program,” Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said on NPR.

“Any politician who doesn’t support increasing Social Security’s revenue is, by default, supporting benefit cuts,” Altman said. “America is the wealthiest country in the history of the world, at the wealthiest moment in our history,” Altman said. “That money can remain concentrated in the hands of billionaires, or it can go towards Social Security, enriching all of our lives.”